Input Parameters
Current State
7.5
Market Context
0.15
Auction Estimates
Fair Market Value (FMV)
€8,500.00
87% confidence
Undervaluation Score
0.153
15.3% below fair value
Predicted Final Price
€8,900.00
95% CI: €8,200 - €9,600
1. Fair Market Value (FMV)
FMV = Σ(Pi · ωc · ωt · ωp · ωh) / Σ(ωc · ωt · ωp · ωh)
Explanation: Weighted average of comparable sales where each comparable is weighted by:
- ω_c Condition similarity (exponential decay)
- ω_t Age proximity (exponential decay)
- ω_p Provenance premium (linear boost)
- ω_h Historical relevance (logistic function)
2. Undervaluation Detection
Uscore = (FMV - Pcurrent)/FMV · σmarket · (1 + Bvelocity/10) · ln(1 + Wwatch/Wbid)
Explanation: Quantifies mispricing opportunity factoring:
- Price gap percentage
- Market volatility multiplier
- Bid velocity acceleration
- Watch-to-bid ratio (buyer intent)
Alert threshold: Uscore > 0.25
3. Final Price Prediction
P̂final = FMV · (1 + εbid + εtime + εcomp)
Explanation: Adjusts FMV for auction dynamics:
- ε_bid Bid momentum (tanh function)
- ε_time Time pressure (exponential decay)
- ε_comp Competition level (logarithmic)
4. Condition Multiplier
Mcond = exp(αc · √Ctarget - βc)
Explanation: Normalizes prices across condition states using square-root scaling:
- C = 10 (mint): 1.48x premium
- C = 7.5 (good): 1.12x premium
- C = 5 (avg): 0.91x discount
Bidding Strategy Recommendations
€9,200
Recommended Max Bid
Standard strategy
10 min
Optimal Bid Timing
Before close
Medium
Competition Level
2.3 bids/min
Analysis: Bid velocity is moderate (2.3 bids/min) with high watch count indicating potential sniping.
Recommendation: Wait until final 10 minutes. Set max bid at €9,200 (7% above FMV) to secure lot while avoiding bidding war.
Risk Factors: High watch-to-bid ratio (87:8) suggests aggressive sniping likely. Reserve may be close to current bid.
Condition Sensitivity
How FMV changes with condition score. Current: 7.5
Time Pressure Impact
Final price prediction vs. time to close. Current: 45 min
Calculation Log
System initialized. Ready for calculations...